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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tom Nolan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1562

Elo1487

Tom NolanvsAlex ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Tom Nolan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTom Nolan: Pressure fightervsAlex Reyes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tom Nolan wins(82.0%)

Actual result: Tom Nolan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Nolan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tom Nolan has 71pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Nolan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tom Nolan

Red Corner

Alex Reyes

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1562

Elo

1487

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom NolanW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jan 24

KOvs Victor Martinez · May 24

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Feb 25

SUBvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 25

DECvs Fares Ziam · Jun 26

latest

Alex ReyesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mike Perry · Sep 17

KOvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom NolanMetricAlex Reyes

5.87

Strikes / min

4.46

4.73

Strikes absorbed / min

6.92

48%

Strike defense

48%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

1.50

71%

Takedown defense

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14Δ 3.60 — meaningful gap-2.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom NolanAlex Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Nolan(6 fights)Alex Reyes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +74.8|Blue -74.8

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -245.0|Blue +245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom NolanTargetAlex Reyes

By target zone

36% acc · 48%

Head

34% acc · 43%

65% acc · 38%

Body

64% acc · 30%

80% acc · 14%

Leg

90% acc · 26%

By position

41% acc · 69%

Distance

46% acc · 75%

79% acc · 31%

Clinch

64% acc · 23%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Nolan rounds

even

Alex Reyes rounds

Round 1Alex Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 2Tom Nolan edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Tom Nolan edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:22

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 176

Sig Strikes

69 / 140

47.7%

Sig Str %

49%

104 / 198

Total Strikes

89 / 161

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

4:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Reyes	23 / 43	26 / 47	2 / 3	0
1	Tom Nolan	23 / 62	25 / 64	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Reyes	27 / 55	28 / 56	0 / 1	0
2	Tom Nolan	32 / 63	40 / 71	0 / 0	0
3	Alex Reyes	19 / 42	35 / 58	0 / 1	0
3	Tom Nolan	29 / 51	39 / 63	0 / 0	1

Tom Nolan

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Alex Reyes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3