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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · SUB R2

Elo1354

Elo1523

Tom NiinimakivsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:30

Style matchupTom Niinimaki: WrestlervsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tom Niinimaki wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Niinimaki at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renato Moicano threatens submissions; Tom Niinimaki has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Renato Moicano has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Niinimaki

Red Corner

Renato Moicano

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1354

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom NiinimakiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Nov 13

SUBvs Niklas Backstrom · May 14

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Aug 14

latest

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom NiinimakiMetricRenato Moicano

1.91

Strikes / min

4.10

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

58%

Strike defense

59%

2.97

TDs / 15 min

1.68

33%

Takedown defense

64%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom NiinimakiRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Niinimaki(4 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -168.6|Blue +168.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom NiinimakiTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

22% acc · 21%

Head

35% acc · 69%

75% acc · 18%

Body

57% acc · 8%

83% acc · 61%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

52% acc · 100%

Distance

43% acc · 96%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Niinimaki rounds

even

Renato Moicano rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 64

Sig Strikes

48 / 111

51%

Sig Str %

44%

33 / 64

Total Strikes

50 / 113

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Renato Moicano	24 / 65	24 / 65	0 / 1	0
1	Tom Niinimaki	20 / 38	20 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Renato Moicano	24 / 46	26 / 48	1 / 1	1
2	Tom Niinimaki	13 / 26	13 / 26	0 / 0	0

Tom Niinimaki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20