← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Niklas Backstrom won · SUB R1

Elo1354

Elo1355

Tom NiinimakivsNiklas BackstromUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Niklas Backstrom won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:15

Style matchupTom Niinimaki: WrestlervsNiklas Backstrom: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tom Niinimaki wins(87.1%)

Actual result: Niklas Backstrom wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Niinimaki at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niklas Backstrom threatens submissions; Tom Niinimaki has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Tom Niinimaki has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Niklas Backstrom has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Niklas Backstrom has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Niinimaki

Red Corner

Niklas Backstrom

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1354

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom NiinimakiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Nov 13

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Aug 14

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Dec 14

latest

Niklas BackstromL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mike Wilkinson · Oct 14

vs Noad Lahat · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom NiinimakiMetricNiklas Backstrom

1.91

Strikes / min

1.12

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

58%

Strike defense

40%

2.97

TDs / 15 min

2.92

33%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-2.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom NiinimakiNiklas Backstrom

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Niinimaki(4 fights)Niklas Backstrom(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom NiinimakiTargetNiklas Backstrom

By target zone

50% acc · 57%

Head

38% acc · 60%

100% acc · 43%

Body

33% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

33% acc · 29%

Distance

33% acc · 40%

100% acc · 43%

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

100% acc · 29%

Ground

50% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Niinimaki rounds

even

Niklas Backstrom rounds

Round 1Tom Niinimaki edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:46

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 11

Sig Strikes

5 / 12

63%

Sig Str %

41%

11 / 16

Total Strikes

6 / 13

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

28%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:46

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Niklas Backstrom	5 / 12	6 / 13	0 / 0	2
1	Tom Niinimaki	7 / 11	11 / 16	2 / 7	0

Tom Niinimaki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Niklas Backstrom

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights3