Middleweight

3 Rounds

Joe Doerksen won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1351

Tom LawlorvsJoe DoerksenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · Saturday, May 8, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Joe Doerksen won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:10

Style matchupTom Lawlor: WrestlervsJoe Doerksen: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tom Lawlor wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Joe Doerksen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Lawlor at -600 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Doerksen threatens submissions; Tom Lawlor has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tom Lawlor has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tom Lawlor has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tom Lawlor

Red Corner

Joe Doerksen

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom Lawlor

oldest →

KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12

vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12

SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13

KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15

vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16

latest

Joe DoerksenL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs CB Dollaway · Sep 10

vs Dan Miller · Dec 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom LawlorMetricJoe Doerksen

2.50

Strikes / min

1.43

2.41

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

60%

Strike defense

50%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

2.02

57%

Takedown defense

33%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-1.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom LawlorJoe Doerksen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Lawlor(8 fights)Joe Doerksen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.6|Blue -139.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom LawlorTargetJoe Doerksen

By target zone

44% acc · 95%

Head

45% acc · 77%

100% acc · 5%

Body

58% acc · 16%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

34% acc · 60%

Distance

48% acc · 86%

89% acc · 38%

Clinch

43% acc · 14%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Lawlor rounds

even

Joe Doerksen rounds

Round 1Tom Lawlor edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:21

Knockdowns1

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Joe Doerksen edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:03

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 92

Sig Strikes

44 / 94

34%

Sig Str %

47.5%

47 / 97

Total Strikes

53 / 103

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Doerksen	29 / 65	37 / 73	0 / 1	0
1	Tom Lawlor	39 / 70	43 / 74	0 / 1	0
2	Joe Doerksen	15 / 29	16 / 30	0 / 0	1
2	Tom Lawlor	3 / 22	4 / 23	0 / 1	0

Tom Lawlor

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Joe Doerksen

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3