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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Chris Weidman won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Elo1494
Chris Weidman

Tom LawlorvsChris WeidmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · Saturday, November 19, 2011San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Chris Weidman won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:07

Style matchupTom Lawlor: WrestlervsChris Weidman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tom Lawlor wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Lawlor at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tom Lawlor is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
  • Chris Weidman has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
  • Chris Weidman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Lawlor
Red Corner
VS
Chris Weidman
Blue Corner
+300
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
1490
Elo
1494
43
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom Lawlor
oldest →
W
KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12
L
vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12
W
SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13
W
KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15
L
vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16
latest
Chris Weidman
oldest →
W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21
L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23
W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom LawlorMetricChris Weidman
2.50
Strikes / min
3.11
2.41
Strikes absorbed / min
3.37
60%
Strike defense
51%
2.46
TDs / 15 min
3.27
57%
Takedown defense
72%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1537Strikes31.4 vs 26.0Takedowns2.6 vs 3.0Sub Atts1.20 vs 0.50Form0.2 vs 1.0
Tom LawlorChris Weidman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Tom Lawlor(8 fights)Chris Weidman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.0|Blue +4.0
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +231.0|Blue -231.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom LawlorTargetChris Weidman

By target zone

2
29% acc · 100%
Head
2
50% acc · 67%
0
Body
1
50% acc · 33%
0
Leg
0

By position

2
29% acc · 100%
Distance
3
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tom Lawlor rounds
0
even
1
Chris Weidman rounds
Round 1Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 7
Sig Strikes
3 / 6
28%
Sig Str %
50%
2 / 7
Total Strikes
3 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:27

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Weidman3 / 63 / 61 / 11
1Tom Lawlor2 / 72 / 70 / 00

Tom Lawlor

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights20