Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Tom Duquesnoy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1367

Tom DuquesnoyvsTerrion WareUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Saturday, March 17, 2018London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Tom Duquesnoy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTom Duquesnoy: StrikervsTerrion Ware: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Tom Duquesnoy wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Tom Duquesnoy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Duquesnoy at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Terrion Ware enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tom Duquesnoy has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Duquesnoy

Red Corner

Terrion Ware

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+345

(22%)

1491

Elo

1367

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom Duquesnoy

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Williams · Apr 17

vs Cody Stamann · Oct 17

latest

Terrion WareL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Stamann · Jul 17

vs Sean O'Malley · Dec 17

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom DuquesnoyMetricTerrion Ware

3.83

Strikes / min

4.02

5.30

Strikes absorbed / min

6.07

62%

Strike defense

50%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

0.50

46%

Takedown defense

44%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.47evenly matched on net striking-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom DuquesnoyTerrion Ware

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Duquesnoy(3 fights)Terrion Ware(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +123.6|Blue -123.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +55.0|Blue -55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom DuquesnoyTargetTerrion Ware

By target zone

27% acc · 42%

Head

26% acc · 71%

44% acc · 12%

Body

71% acc · 18%

100% acc · 46%

Leg

83% acc · 12%

By position

44% acc · 99%

Distance

29% acc · 84%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

60% acc · 7%

Ground

89% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Duquesnoy rounds

even

Terrion Ware rounds

Round 1Terrion Ware edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:01

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Terrion Ware edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 3Terrion Ware edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:04

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 153

Sig Strikes

85 / 267

43.7%

Sig Str %

33%

70 / 156

Total Strikes

108 / 295

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Terrion Ware	26 / 70	30 / 74	1 / 1
1	Tom Duquesnoy	22 / 50	22 / 50	0 / 1
2	Terrion Ware	34 / 84	53 / 108	0 / 2
2	Tom Duquesnoy	22 / 46	25 / 49	0 / 1
3	Terrion Ware	25 / 113	25 / 113	1 / 3
3	Tom Duquesnoy	23 / 57	23 / 57	0 / 1

Tom Duquesnoy

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3

Terrion Ware

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4