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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tom Breese won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1492

Tom BreesevsKeita NakamuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · Saturday, February 27, 2016London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Tom Breese won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Keita Nakamura wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Tom Breese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Keita Nakamura at +750 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Keita Nakamura threatens submissions; Tom Breese has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Breese

Red Corner

Keita Nakamura

Blue Corner

-1165

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+750

(12%)

1493

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom Breese

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16

KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18

KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20

KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20

SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21

latest

Keita Nakamura

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16

vs Alex Morono · Sep 17

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18

vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18

vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom BreeseMetricKeita Nakamura

3.34

Strikes / min

2.23

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

60%

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.65

70%

Takedown defense

63%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom BreeseKeita Nakamura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Breese(8 fights)Keita Nakamura(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom BreeseTargetKeita Nakamura

By target zone

52% acc · 81%

Head

44% acc · 67%

57% acc · 13%

Body

40% acc · 33%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

0% acc

By position

42% acc · 41%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

82% acc · 28%

Clinch

0% acc

59% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Breese rounds

even

Keita Nakamura rounds

Round 1Tom Breese edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:20

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Tom Breese edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control3:25

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:40

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 59

Sig Strikes

6 / 16

51.7%

Sig Str %

16.7%

88 / 121

Total Strikes

16 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

6:25

Ctrl Time

4:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Keita Nakamura	6 / 12	9 / 16	1 / 3	0
1	Tom Breese	15 / 25	25 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Keita Nakamura	0 / 2	1 / 3	1 / 1	1
2	Tom Breese	12 / 20	37 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Keita Nakamura	0 / 2	6 / 8	1 / 2	0
3	Tom Breese	5 / 14	26 / 40	0 / 0	1

Tom Breese

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Keita Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8