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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Tom Breese won · KO/TKO
Elo1493
Elo1400

Tom BreesevsKB BhullarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, October 10, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Tom Breese won

KO/TKO

Style matchupTom Breese: Well-roundedvsKB Bhullar: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Tom Breese wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Tom Breese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Breese at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tom Breese is a KO finisher (80% of wins). KB Bhullar has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Tom Breese has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Tom Breese has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tom Breese (53.5%).
  • KB Bhullar has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Breese
Red Corner
VS
KB Bhullar
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1493
Elo
1400
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom BreeseL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Keita Nakamura · Feb 16
L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16
W
KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18
L
KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21
latest
KB Bhullar
oldest →
L
vs Andreas Michailidis · May 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom BreeseMetricKB Bhullar
3.34
Strikes / min
4.31
2.81
Strikes absorbed / min
5.39
60%
Strike defense
45%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
70%
Takedown defense
0%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.53Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1500Strikes3.5 vs 0.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form-0.6 vs 0.0
Tom BreeseKB Bhullar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Tom Breese(8 fights)KB Bhullar(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +93.3|Blue -93.3
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom BreeseTargetKB Bhullar

By target zone

15
60% acc · 88%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 12%
Leg
2
50% acc · 100%

By position

11
58% acc · 65%
Distance
2
13% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
6
86% acc · 35%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tom Breese rounds
0
even
0
KB Bhullar rounds
Round 1Tom Breese edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
17 / 27
Sig Strikes
2 / 15
62%
Sig Str %
13%
18 / 28
Total Strikes
2 / 16
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1KB Bhullar2 / 152 / 160 / 00
1Tom Breese17 / 2718 / 280 / 00

Tom Breese

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

KB Bhullar

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights2