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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1516

Elo1495

Tom AspinallvsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Tom Aspinall won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:13

Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(84.4%)

Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Aspinall at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tom Aspinall has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Aspinall

Red Corner

Marcin Tybura

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1516

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom Aspinall

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25

latest

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom AspinallMetricMarcin Tybura

7.63

Strikes / min

3.56

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

56%

Strike defense

55%

2.62

TDs / 15 min

1.30

100%

Takedown defense

70%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.01Δ 3.71 — meaningful gap+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom AspinallMarcin Tybura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.6|Blue -20.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom AspinallTargetMarcin Tybura

By target zone

71% acc · 92%

Head

15% acc · 50%

100% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

70% acc · 54%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 46%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Aspinall rounds

even

Marcin Tybura rounds

Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 18

Sig Strikes

4 / 15

72%

Sig Str %

26%

13 / 18

Total Strikes

4 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Tybura	4 / 15	4 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Tom Aspinall	13 / 18	13 / 18	0 / 0	0

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24