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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1516

Elo1474

Tom AspinallvsJake CollierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Tom Aspinall won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:45

Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsJake Collier: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jake Collier wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Collier at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tom Aspinall has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Aspinall

Red Corner

Jake Collier

Blue Corner

-278

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1516

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom Aspinall

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25

latest

Jake CollierL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom AspinallMetricJake Collier

7.63

Strikes / min

5.80

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

56%

Strike defense

50%

2.62

TDs / 15 min

0.71

100%

Takedown defense

67%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.01Δ 3.29 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom AspinallJake Collier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.3|Blue -42.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +48.3|Blue -48.3

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom AspinallTargetJake Collier

By target zone

100% acc · 70%

Head

14% acc · 33%

100% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 67%

By position

100% acc · 90%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Aspinall rounds

even

Jake Collier rounds

Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 10

Sig Strikes

3 / 9

100%

Sig Str %

33%

10 / 10

Total Strikes

3 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jake Collier	3 / 9	3 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Tom Aspinall	10 / 10	10 / 10	0 / 0	0

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14