← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1516

Elo1495

Tom AspinallvsCurtis BlaydesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Tom Aspinall won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:00

Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsCurtis Blaydes: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(75.6%)

Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Aspinall at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Tom Aspinall has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tom Aspinall has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Aspinall

Red Corner

Curtis Blaydes

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1516

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom Aspinall

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23

vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25

latest

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 22

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom AspinallMetricCurtis Blaydes

7.63

Strikes / min

4.18

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

56%

Strike defense

53%

2.62

TDs / 15 min

5.12

100%

Takedown defense

35%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.01Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom AspinallCurtis Blaydes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.6|Blue -20.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom AspinallTargetCurtis Blaydes

By target zone

74% acc · 100%

Head

45% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

50% acc · 29%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

91% acc · 71%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Aspinall rounds

even

Curtis Blaydes rounds

Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 19

Sig Strikes

5 / 11

73%

Sig Str %

45%

14 / 19

Total Strikes

5 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Curtis Blaydes	5 / 11	5 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Tom Aspinall	14 / 19	14 / 19	0 / 0	0

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19