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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

No Contest won · CNC R1

Elo1516

Elo1531

Tom AspinallvsCiryl GaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

No Contest

CNC · Round 1 · 4:35

Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsCiryl Gane: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ciryl Gane enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tom Aspinall has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Aspinall

Red Corner

Ciryl Gane

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1516

Elo

1531

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom AspinallW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24

latest

Ciryl GaneW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 22

SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom AspinallMetricCiryl Gane

7.63

Strikes / min

5.29

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

56%

Strike defense

60%

2.62

TDs / 15 min

0.68

100%

Takedown defense

47%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.01Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+2.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom AspinallCiryl Gane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Ciryl Gane(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.3|Blue +15.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom AspinallTargetCiryl Gane

By target zone

56% acc · 52%

Head

50% acc · 27%

83% acc · 19%

Body

82% acc · 30%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

69% acc · 100%

Distance

75% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Aspinall rounds

even

Ciryl Gane rounds

Round 1Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 39

Sig Strikes

30 / 40

69%

Sig Str %

75%

27 / 39

Total Strikes

30 / 40

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ciryl Gane	30 / 40	30 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Tom Aspinall	27 / 39	27 / 39	0 / 1	0

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights13