Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO

Elo1516

Elo1426

Tom AspinallvsAlan BaudotUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, October 10, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Tom Aspinall won

KO/TKO

Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsAlan Baudot: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(79.8%)

Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Aspinall at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alan Baudot enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Alan Baudot has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Tom Aspinall has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tom Aspinall has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Aspinall

Red Corner

Alan Baudot

Blue Corner

-560

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1516

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom Aspinall

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25

latest

Alan BaudotL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · Jul 21

vs Parker Porter · Feb 22

KOvs Josh Parisian · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom AspinallMetricAlan Baudot

7.63

Strikes / min

5.36

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.82

56%

Strike defense

46%

2.62

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

62%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.01Δ 3.47 — meaningful gap+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom AspinallAlan Baudot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Alan Baudot(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +89.9|Blue -89.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom AspinallTargetAlan Baudot

By target zone

63% acc · 94%

Head

10% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 67%

By position

40% acc · 25%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

80% acc · 75%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Aspinall rounds

even

Alan Baudot rounds

Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:30

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 25

Sig Strikes

3 / 12

64%

Sig Str %

25%

17 / 26

Total Strikes

5 / 14

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alan Baudot	3 / 12	5 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Tom Aspinall	16 / 25	17 / 26	1 / 1	0

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Alan Baudot

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4