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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Myktybek Orolbai won · SUB R1
Elo1509
Tofiq Musayev editorial illustration
Elo1549
Myktybek Orolbai

Tofiq MusayevvsMyktybek OrolbaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, June 21, 2025Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Myktybek Orolbai won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:35

Style matchupTofiq Musayev: WrestlervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai wins(88.5%)

Actual result: Myktybek Orolbai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Myktybek Orolbai at -186 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Myktybek Orolbai has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tofiq Musayev
Red Corner
VS
Myktybek Orolbai
Blue Corner
+156
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-186
(65%)
1509
Elo
1549
36
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tofiq Musayev
oldest →
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Mar 26
latest
Myktybek OrolbaiW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Uros Medic · Nov 23
W
vs Elves Brener · May 24
L
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Oct 24
W
KOvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 25
W
vs Chris Curtis · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tofiq MusayevMetricMyktybek Orolbai
1.84
Strikes / min
2.78
1.74
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
50%
Strike defense
51%
2.30
TDs / 15 min
8.77
50%
Takedown defense
40%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1524Strikes1.8 vs 2.8Takedowns2.3 vs 8.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form0.0 vs 0.0
Tofiq MusayevMyktybek Orolbai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Tofiq Musayev(2 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -40.0|Blue +40.0
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Grappler Score
Red +49.1|Blue -49.1
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tofiq MusayevTargetMyktybek Orolbai

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
2
29% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 100%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

2
33% acc · 100%
Distance
1
25% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
33% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tofiq Musayev rounds
0
even
1
Myktybek Orolbai rounds
Round 1Myktybek Orolbai edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:12
2Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 6
Sig Strikes
2 / 7
33%
Sig Str %
28%
17 / 23
Total Strikes
15 / 25
0 / 0
TDs
3 / 5
—
TD %
60%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:12
Ctrl Time
3:40

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Myktybek Orolbai2 / 715 / 253 / 51
1Tofiq Musayev2 / 617 / 230 / 00

Tofiq Musayev

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2

Myktybek Orolbai

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6