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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mike Russow won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Todd DuffeevsMike RussowUFC Prediction Result

UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · Saturday, May 29, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Russow won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:35

Style matchupTodd Duffee: Elusive strikervsMike Russow: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Mike Russow wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Mike Russow wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Russow at +250 American odds

+$250 profit

$350 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Todd Duffee is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Mike Russow has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Mike Russow is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Todd Duffee has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Todd Duffee has 90pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Todd Duffee has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Todd Duffee

Red Corner

Mike Russow

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Todd Duffee

oldest →

KOvs Philip De Fries · Dec 12

KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Dec 14

KOvs Frank Mir · Jul 15

latest

Mike RussowL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jon Madsen · Mar 11

vs Jon Olav Einemo · Jan 12

KOvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 12

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Jan 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Todd DuffeeMetricMike Russow

5.93

Strikes / min

1.55

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

56%

Strike defense

59%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

4.66

90%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.06Δ 4.41 — meaningful gap-1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Todd DuffeeMike Russow

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Todd Duffee(4 fights)Mike Russow(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.5|Blue -138.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Todd DuffeeTargetMike Russow

By target zone

25% acc · 84%

Head

32% acc · 100%

70% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 2%

Leg

By position

28% acc · 94%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Todd Duffee rounds

even

Mike Russow rounds

Round 1Todd Duffee edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:01

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Todd Duffee edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mike Russow edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 182

Sig Strikes

14 / 44

26%

Sig Str %

31.3%

51 / 182

Total Strikes

15 / 45

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 9

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Russow	5 / 14	5 / 14	0 / 3
1	Todd Duffee	31 / 103	31 / 103	0 / 0
2	Mike Russow	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 4
2	Todd Duffee	14 / 52	14 / 52	0 / 0
3	Mike Russow	4 / 14	5 / 15	0 / 2
3	Todd Duffee	6 / 27	6 / 27	0 / 0

Todd Duffee

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4

Mike Russow

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5