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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Todd Duffee won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Todd Duffee
Elo1363

Todd DuffeevsAnthony HamiltonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Todd Duffee won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:33

Style matchupTodd Duffee: Elusive strikervsAnthony Hamilton: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hamilton wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Todd Duffee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hamilton at +285 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Hamilton enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Anthony Hamilton is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Todd Duffee has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Todd Duffee has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Todd Duffee
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Hamilton
Blue Corner
-315
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+285
(26%)
1490
Elo
1363
40
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'5"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Todd Duffee
oldest →
L
KOvs Mike Russow · May 10
W
KOvs Philip De Fries · Dec 12
L
KOvs Frank Mir · Jul 15
latest
Anthony HamiltonL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Damian Grabowski · Jul 16
L
SUBvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 16
L
KOvs Marcel Fortuna · Feb 17
L
KOvs Daniel Spitz · Sep 17
L
vs Adam Wieczorek · Nov 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Todd DuffeeMetricAnthony Hamilton
5.93
Strikes / min
3.91
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
56%
Strike defense
45%
0.72
TDs / 15 min
2.62
90%
Takedown defense
78%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.06Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap+0.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes25.0 vs 33.0Takedowns0.0 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.9 vs 0.1
Todd DuffeeAnthony Hamilton

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Todd Duffee(4 fights)Anthony Hamilton(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +127.7|Blue -127.7
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +609.0|Blue -609.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Todd DuffeeTargetAnthony Hamilton

By target zone

8
50% acc · 100%
Head
2
33% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

6
43% acc · 75%
Distance
2
33% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 25%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Todd Duffee rounds
0
even
0
Anthony Hamilton rounds
Round 1Todd Duffee edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 16
Sig Strikes
2 / 6
50%
Sig Str %
33%
8 / 16
Total Strikes
2 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Hamilton2 / 62 / 60 / 00
1Todd Duffee8 / 168 / 160 / 00

Todd Duffee

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights4

Anthony Hamilton

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights10