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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tim Boetsch won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1371

Todd BrownvsTim BoetschUFC Prediction Result

UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 7, 2010Oakland, California, USA

Official fight result

Tim Boetsch won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tim Boetsch wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Tim Boetsch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Boetsch at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Boetsch is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Todd Brown has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Todd Brown

Red Corner

Tim Boetsch

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-350

(78%)

1351

Elo

1371

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

188 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Todd Brown

oldest →

KOvs Igor Pokrajac · Mar 11

latest

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Todd BrownMetricTim Boetsch

2.15

Strikes / min

2.93

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

48%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.45

50%

Takedown defense

59%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.70Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Todd BrownTim Boetsch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Todd Brown(2 fights)Tim Boetsch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.3|Blue +20.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Todd BrownTargetTim Boetsch

By target zone

17% acc · 29%

Head

43% acc · 58%

62% acc · 29%

Body

81% acc · 28%

92% acc · 43%

Leg

80% acc · 13%

By position

30% acc · 64%

Distance

47% acc · 58%

83% acc · 36%

Clinch

65% acc · 25%

Ground

71% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Todd Brown rounds

even

Tim Boetsch rounds

Round 1Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:37

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 2Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:54

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:41

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 72

Sig Strikes

60 / 112

39%

Sig Str %

54.7%

42 / 87

Total Strikes

110 / 163

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:12

Ctrl Time

3:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Boetsch	19 / 32	38 / 52	1 / 4	0
1	Todd Brown	12 / 27	14 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Tim Boetsch	21 / 48	34 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Todd Brown	10 / 30	17 / 37	0 / 0	0
3	Tim Boetsch	20 / 32	38 / 50	2 / 2	1
3	Todd Brown	6 / 15	11 / 21	0 / 0	0

Todd Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20