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Lightweight

3 Rounds

TJ Grant won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1392

TJ GrantvsMatt WimanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

TJ Grant won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:51

Model Prediction: TJ Grant wins(55.8%)

Actual result: TJ Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Grant at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

TJ Grant enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Wiman has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
TJ Grant has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Grant

Red Corner

Matt Wiman

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1490

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ GrantW4 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Almeida · Dec 10

SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 11

vs Carlo Prater · May 12

vs Evan Dunham · Sep 12

KOvs Gray Maynard · May 13

latest

Matt WimanL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Paul Sass · Sep 12

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14

KOvs Luis Pena · Jun 19

vs Joe Solecki · Dec 19

KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ GrantMetricMatt Wiman

3.95

Strikes / min

3.17

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.57

56%

Strike defense

51%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

2.13

36%

Takedown defense

56%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.74Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ GrantMatt Wiman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Grant(8 fights)Matt Wiman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +97.8|Blue -97.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ GrantTargetMatt Wiman

By target zone

51% acc · 69%

Head

20% acc · 50%

83% acc · 28%

Body

40% acc · 11%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

88% acc · 39%

By position

46% acc · 46%

Distance

31% acc · 89%

83% acc · 37%

Clinch

33% acc · 11%

60% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Grant rounds

even

Matt Wiman rounds

Round 1TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control1:10

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 93

Sig Strikes

18 / 57

58%

Sig Str %

31%

56 / 96

Total Strikes

18 / 58

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Wiman	18 / 57	18 / 58	0 / 1	0
1	TJ Grant	54 / 93	56 / 96	0 / 0	0

TJ Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Matt Wiman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10