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Welterweight

3 Rounds

TJ Grant won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1351

TJ GrantvsJulio PaulinoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · Saturday, September 25, 2010Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

TJ Grant won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: TJ Grant wins(50.6%)

Actual result: TJ Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Grant at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

TJ Grant enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Grant

Red Corner

Julio Paulino

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ GrantW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 11

vs Carlo Prater · May 12

vs Evan Dunham · Sep 12

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jan 13

KOvs Gray Maynard · May 13

latest

Julio Paulino

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Mar 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ GrantMetricJulio Paulino

3.95

Strikes / min

0.97

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

1.87

56%

Strike defense

48%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.00

36%

Takedown defense

37%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.74Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-0.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ GrantJulio Paulino

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Grant(8 fights)Julio Paulino(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.4|Blue -139.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ GrantTargetJulio Paulino

By target zone

45% acc · 53%

Head

18% acc · 42%

55% acc · 35%

Body

55% acc · 50%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

33% acc · 8%

By position

40% acc · 12%

Distance

16% acc · 33%

40% acc · 35%

Clinch

40% acc · 33%

69% acc · 53%

Ground

57% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Grant rounds

even

Julio Paulino rounds

Round 1TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control2:52

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control3:28

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 3TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:39

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 33

Sig Strikes

12 / 42

52.3%

Sig Str %

29%

36 / 59

Total Strikes

39 / 71

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

62.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:59

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julio Paulino	4 / 16	8 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	TJ Grant	8 / 12	21 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Julio Paulino	4 / 15	19 / 31	0 / 0	1
2	TJ Grant	2 / 4	6 / 11	3 / 4	0
3	Julio Paulino	4 / 11	12 / 20	0 / 0	0
3	TJ Grant	7 / 17	9 / 19	1 / 2	1

TJ Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Julio Paulino

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2