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Lightweight

3 Rounds

TJ Grant won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1385

TJ GrantvsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · Saturday, September 22, 2012Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

TJ Grant won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(58.3%)

Actual result: TJ Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Evan Dunham at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

TJ Grant enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

TJ Grant

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1490

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ GrantW4 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Almeida · Dec 10

SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 11

vs Carlo Prater · May 12

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jan 13

KOvs Gray Maynard · May 13

latest

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ GrantMetricEvan Dunham

3.95

Strikes / min

5.33

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

56%

Strike defense

61%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

1.82

36%

Takedown defense

79%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.74Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ GrantEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Grant(8 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +105.3|Blue -105.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -108.0|Blue +108.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ GrantTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

44% acc · 60%

Head

132

39% acc · 83%

86% acc · 33%

Body

62% acc · 13%

92% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

146

53% acc · 89%

Distance

156

42% acc · 98%

75% acc · 11%

Clinch

75% acc · 2%

Ground

25% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Grant rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:22

42Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:17

53Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes60

Takedowns0

Control0:01

65Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

164 / 300

Sig Strikes

160 / 377

54.7%

Sig Str %

42.3%

171 / 309

Total Strikes

183 / 410

0 / 3

TDs

3 / 8

TD %

52.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

1:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Evan Dunham	42 / 92	49 / 103	1 / 1
1	TJ Grant	52 / 91	57 / 98	0 / 0
2	Evan Dunham	53 / 135	64 / 148	1 / 4
2	TJ Grant	52 / 98	53 / 99	0 / 2
3	Evan Dunham	65 / 150	70 / 159	1 / 3
3	TJ Grant	60 / 111	61 / 112	0 / 1

TJ Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17