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Lightweight

3 Rounds

TJ Grant won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

TJ GrantvsCarlo PraterUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · Tuesday, May 15, 2012Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

TJ Grant won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: TJ Grant wins(59.4%)

Actual result: TJ Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Grant at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

TJ Grant enters on a 4-fight win streak.
TJ Grant has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Carlo Prater has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Carlo Prater (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

TJ Grant

Red Corner

Carlo Prater

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ GrantW4 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Almeida · Dec 10

SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 11

vs Evan Dunham · Sep 12

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jan 13

KOvs Gray Maynard · May 13

latest

Carlo Prater

oldest →

vs Erick Silva · Jan 12

vs Marcus LeVesseur · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ GrantMetricCarlo Prater

3.95

Strikes / min

2.03

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

56%

Strike defense

35%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.43

36%

Takedown defense

57%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.74Δ 2.78 — meaningful gap-2.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ GrantCarlo Prater

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Grant(8 fights)Carlo Prater(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.5|Blue -138.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ GrantTargetCarlo Prater

By target zone

43% acc · 44%

Head

34% acc · 52%

84% acc · 40%

Body

38% acc · 11%

92% acc · 16%

Leg

83% acc · 37%

By position

47% acc · 50%

Distance

44% acc · 93%

86% acc · 35%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

83% acc · 15%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Grant rounds

even

Carlo Prater rounds

Round 1TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:18

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control2:26

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control3:12

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 113

Sig Strikes

27 / 61

59.7%

Sig Str %

45.3%

116 / 163

Total Strikes

33 / 67

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 3

41.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:56

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlo Prater	9 / 25	9 / 25	0 / 2	0
1	TJ Grant	24 / 42	34 / 52	0 / 1	0
2	Carlo Prater	7 / 14	9 / 16	0 / 1	0
2	TJ Grant	26 / 39	51 / 64	1 / 4	0
3	Carlo Prater	11 / 22	15 / 26	0 / 0	1
3	TJ Grant	18 / 32	31 / 47	2 / 2	1

TJ Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Carlo Prater

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3