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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

TJ Dillashaw won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1352

TJ DillashawvsWalel WatsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · Wednesday, February 15, 2012Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Walel Watson wins(61.8%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Walel Watson at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Walel Watson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). TJ Dillashaw has lost 60% of fights by KO.
TJ Dillashaw has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
TJ Dillashaw has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Walel Watson has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw

Red Corner

Walel Watson

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1496

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

170.18 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21

KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22

latest

Walel WatsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joseph Sandoval · Oct 11

vs Yves Jabouin · Dec 11

SUBvs Mitch Gagnon · Sep 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricWalel Watson

5.09

Strikes / min

2.10

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

62%

Strike defense

43%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.00

77%

Takedown defense

61%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 3.31 — meaningful gap-1.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ DillashawWalel Watson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Walel Watson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +143.9|Blue -143.9

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetWalel Watson

By target zone

72% acc · 89%

Head

32% acc · 91%

100% acc · 6%

Body

50% acc · 9%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

60% acc · 11%

Distance

27% acc · 64%

Clinch

77% acc · 89%

Ground

57% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Dillashaw rounds

even

Walel Watson rounds

Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control4:47

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns1

Control4:36

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:01

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 114

Sig Strikes

11 / 33

73%

Sig Str %

20.7%

154 / 192

Total Strikes

19 / 42

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

55.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Walel Watson	0 / 1	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	TJ Dillashaw	23 / 28	44 / 53	1 / 3	2
2	Walel Watson	2 / 8	2 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	TJ Dillashaw	46 / 60	94 / 112	1 / 1	2
3	Walel Watson	9 / 24	15 / 30	0 / 0	1
3	TJ Dillashaw	16 / 26	16 / 27	1 / 3	1

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Walel Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4