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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

TJ Dillashaw won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1496

Elo1378

TJ DillashawvsRenan BaraoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · Saturday, July 25, 2015Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 0:35

Style matchupTJ Dillashaw: Well-roundedvsRenan Barao: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: TJ Dillashaw wins(54.0%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Dillashaw at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw

Red Corner

Renan Barao

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1496

Elo

1378

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21

KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22

latest

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricRenan Barao

5.09

Strikes / min

3.78

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

62%

Strike defense

57%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

1.49

77%

Takedown defense

91%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ DillashawRenan Barao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Renan Barao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +117.7|Blue -117.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetRenan Barao

By target zone

49% acc · 72%

Head

24% acc · 50%

86% acc · 16%

Body

51% acc · 31%

78% acc · 12%

Leg

80% acc · 19%

By position

52% acc · 79%

Distance

32% acc · 81%

72% acc · 20%

Clinch

46% acc · 19%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Dillashaw rounds

even

Renan Barao rounds

Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control1:21

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control2:11

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control2:05

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

117 / 212

Sig Strikes

62 / 181

56.3%

Sig Str %

31%

170 / 273

Total Strikes

65 / 185

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:37

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Renan Barao	30 / 72	31 / 73	0 / 1
1	TJ Dillashaw	30 / 60	50 / 82	0 / 0
2	TJ Dillashaw	30 / 52	44 / 71	0 / 4
2	Renan Barao	12 / 44	14 / 47	0 / 2
3	Renan Barao	16 / 48	16 / 48	0 / 2
3	TJ Dillashaw	33 / 65	52 / 85	0 / 1
4	Renan Barao	4 / 17	4 / 17	0 / 0
4	TJ Dillashaw	24 / 35	24 / 35	0 / 0

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17