Bantamweight

3 Rounds

TJ Dillashaw won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

TJ DillashawvsRaphael AssuncaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · Saturday, July 9, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTJ Dillashaw: Well-roundedvsRaphael Assuncao: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: TJ Dillashaw wins(56.3%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Dillashaw at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw

Red Corner

Raphael Assuncao

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1496

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21

KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22

latest

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricRaphael Assuncao

5.09

Strikes / min

3.22

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

2.50

62%

Strike defense

66%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

1.65

77%

Takedown defense

78%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ DillashawRaphael Assuncao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -470.0|Blue +470.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetRaphael Assuncao

By target zone

22% acc · 52%

Head

25% acc · 51%

63% acc · 16%

Body

65% acc · 22%

78% acc · 33%

Leg

59% acc · 27%

By position

32% acc · 95%

Distance

36% acc · 94%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

25% acc · 6%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Dillashaw rounds

even

Raphael Assuncao rounds

Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:17

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:07

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:24

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 195

Sig Strikes

49 / 140

33%

Sig Str %

34%

72 / 205

Total Strikes

52 / 143

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

16.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raphael Assuncao	14 / 45	14 / 45	0 / 0
1	TJ Dillashaw	18 / 72	23 / 78	0 / 1
2	Raphael Assuncao	13 / 42	13 / 42	0 / 1
2	TJ Dillashaw	22 / 62	23 / 63	0 / 2
3	Raphael Assuncao	22 / 53	25 / 56	0 / 1
3	TJ Dillashaw	24 / 61	26 / 64	1 / 2

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19