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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
TJ Dillashaw won · U-DEC R3
Elo1496
Elo1492
John Lineker

TJ DillashawvsJohn LinekerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Friday, December 30, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTJ Dillashaw: Well-roundedvsJohn Lineker: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: TJ Dillashaw wins(59.6%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Dillashaw at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Lineker is a KO finisher (50% of wins). TJ Dillashaw has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw
Red Corner
VS
John Lineker
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1496
Elo
1492
40
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'3"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw
oldest →
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22
latest
John Lineker
oldest →
W
KOvs Michael McDonald · Jul 16
W
vs John Dodson · Oct 16
W
vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricJohn Lineker
5.09
Strikes / min
5.36
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
4.27
62%
Strike defense
56%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
0.56
77%
Takedown defense
67%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62evenly matched on net striking+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1594 vs 1615Strikes72.3 vs 57.3Takedowns1.3 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.92 vs 0.50Form0.5 vs 1.0
TJ DillashawJohn Lineker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)John Lineker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +4.0|Blue -4.0
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetJohn Lineker

By target zone

53
54% acc · 75%
Head
18
34% acc · 47%
10
83% acc · 14%
Body
19
53% acc · 50%
8
89% acc · 11%
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

25
42% acc · 35%
Distance
33
41% acc · 87%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
46
77% acc · 65%
Ground
5
83% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
TJ Dillashaw rounds
0
even
0
John Lineker rounds
Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:34
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns2
Control3:46
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns2
Control1:33
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
71 / 119
Sig Strikes
38 / 90
56.7%
Sig Str %
44.3%
177 / 249
Total Strikes
51 / 107
5 / 6
TDs
1 / 2
88.7%
TD %
50%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:53
Ctrl Time
0:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Lineker12 / 4012 / 401 / 20
1TJ Dillashaw13 / 3037 / 561 / 10
2John Lineker9 / 1719 / 310 / 00
2TJ Dillashaw37 / 5198 / 1312 / 20
3John Lineker17 / 3320 / 360 / 00
3TJ Dillashaw21 / 3842 / 622 / 31

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16