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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
TJ Dillashaw won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1496
Elo1364
Joe Soto

TJ DillashawvsJoe SotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · Saturday, August 30, 2014Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 2:20

Style matchupTJ Dillashaw: Well-roundedvsJoe Soto: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: TJ Dillashaw wins(73.1%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Dillashaw at -1100 American odds

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • TJ Dillashaw is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Joe Soto has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw
Red Corner
VS
Joe Soto
Blue Corner
-1100
(92%)
Vegas Odds
+900
(10%)
1496
Elo
1364
40
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw
oldest →
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22
latest
Joe SotoL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Chris Beal · Jun 16
W
SUBvs Marco Beltran · Nov 16
W
vs Rani Yahya · Mar 17
L
SUBvs Brett Johns · Dec 17
L
KOvs Iuri Alcantara · Feb 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricJoe Soto
5.09
Strikes / min
3.36
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
5.37
62%
Strike defense
67%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
0.85
77%
Takedown defense
70%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 3.63 — meaningful gap-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1566 vs 1500Strikes53.4 vs —Takedowns1.5 vs —Sub Atts1.38 vs —Form0.7 vs 0.0
TJ DillashawJoe Soto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Joe Soto(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +131.8|Blue -131.8
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -48.3|Blue +48.3
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetJoe Soto

By target zone

113
28% acc · 75%
Head
53
29% acc · 85%
22
67% acc · 15%
Body
6
75% acc · 10%
16
76% acc · 11%
Leg
3
60% acc · 5%

By position

144
33% acc · 95%
Distance
62
32% acc · 100%
6
60% acc · 4%
Clinch
0
0% acc
1
25% acc · 1%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
TJ Dillashaw rounds
0
even
0
Joe Soto rounds
Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:32
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns1
Control0:15
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns1
Control1:03
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
151 / 454
Sig Strikes
62 / 197
33%
Sig Str %
29.8%
156 / 461
Total Strikes
63 / 198
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 5
66.7%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:51
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joe Soto8 / 308 / 300 / 20
1TJ Dillashaw21 / 6921 / 690 / 00
2Joe Soto24 / 6724 / 670 / 00
2TJ Dillashaw43 / 13543 / 1350 / 10
3Joe Soto13 / 4314 / 440 / 10
3TJ Dillashaw41 / 12843 / 1301 / 10
4TJ Dillashaw32 / 7835 / 831 / 10
4Joe Soto13 / 4313 / 430 / 00
5Joe Soto4 / 144 / 140 / 20
5TJ Dillashaw14 / 4414 / 440 / 00

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Joe Soto

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8