Bantamweight

3 Rounds

TJ Dillashaw won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1352

TJ DillashawvsIssei TamuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:26

Model Prediction: TJ Dillashaw wins(75.7%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Dillashaw at -660 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

TJ Dillashaw is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Issei Tamura has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Issei Tamura is a KO finisher (100% of wins). TJ Dillashaw has lost 60% of fights by KO.
TJ Dillashaw has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
TJ Dillashaw has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
TJ Dillashaw has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw

Red Corner

Issei Tamura

Blue Corner

-660

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+540

(16%)

1496

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21

KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22

latest

Issei Tamura

oldest →

KOvs Tiequan Zhang · Feb 12

KOvs Raphael Assuncao · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricIssei Tamura

5.09

Strikes / min

1.89

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

62%

Strike defense

44%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.92

77%

Takedown defense

33%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 4.31 — meaningful gap-2.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ DillashawIssei Tamura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Issei Tamura(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +143.6|Blue -143.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetIssei Tamura

By target zone

41% acc · 43%

Head

40% acc · 36%

50% acc · 10%

Body

67% acc · 36%

74% acc · 47%

Leg

75% acc · 27%

By position

26% acc · 27%

Distance

33% acc · 36%

78% acc · 47%

Clinch

88% acc · 64%

100% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Dillashaw rounds

even

Issei Tamura rounds

Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control2:50

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 57

Sig Strikes

11 / 20

66.5%

Sig Str %

28.5%

39 / 66

Total Strikes

17 / 28

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

66%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Issei Tamura	11 / 19	17 / 27	0 / 1
1	TJ Dillashaw	22 / 48	31 / 57	2 / 3
2	Issei Tamura	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0
2	TJ Dillashaw	8 / 9	8 / 9	0 / 0

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Issei Tamura

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights3