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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
TJ Dillashaw won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1496
Elo1355

TJ DillashawvsHugo VianaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · Saturday, April 20, 2013San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:22

Style matchupTJ Dillashaw: Well-roundedvsHugo Viana: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: TJ Dillashaw wins(53.9%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Dillashaw at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • TJ Dillashaw is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Hugo Viana has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • TJ Dillashaw has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw
Red Corner
VS
Hugo Viana
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
1496
Elo
1355
40
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw
oldest →
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22
latest
Hugo VianaL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs John Teixeira · Jun 12
W
KOvs Reuben Duran · Dec 12
W
DECvs Junior Hernandez · Jan 14
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 14
L
vs Guido Cannetti · Aug 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricHugo Viana
5.09
Strikes / min
3.05
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.20
62%
Strike defense
57%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
0.22
77%
Takedown defense
50%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1531Strikes30.0 vs 43.5Takedowns1.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.50 vs 0.00Form0.7 vs 1.0
TJ DillashawHugo Viana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Hugo Viana(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +140.5|Blue -140.5
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -91.0|Blue +91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetHugo Viana

By target zone

16
41% acc · 76%
Head
8
27% acc · 73%
3
100% acc · 14%
Body
1
50% acc · 9%
2
100% acc · 10%
Leg
2
100% acc · 18%

By position

17
44% acc · 81%
Distance
8
29% acc · 73%
1
50% acc · 5%
Clinch
3
50% acc · 27%
3
100% acc · 14%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
TJ Dillashaw rounds
0
even
0
Hugo Viana rounds
Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control1:02
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
21 / 44
Sig Strikes
11 / 34
47%
Sig Str %
32%
22 / 45
Total Strikes
13 / 36
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
33%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Hugo Viana11 / 3413 / 360 / 00
1TJ Dillashaw21 / 4422 / 451 / 30

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Hugo Viana

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights6