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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Dominick Cruz won · S-DEC R5
Elo1496
Elo1495

TJ DillashawvsDominick CruzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Cruz won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupTJ Dillashaw: Well-roundedvsDominick Cruz: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: TJ Dillashaw wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Dominick Cruz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Dillashaw at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • TJ Dillashaw is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Dominick Cruz has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw
Red Corner
VS
Dominick Cruz
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1496
Elo
1495
40
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw
oldest →
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22
latest
Dominick Cruz
oldest →
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20
W
vs Casey Kenney · Mar 21
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricDominick Cruz
5.09
Strikes / min
3.91
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
2.61
62%
Strike defense
70%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
2.82
77%
Takedown defense
83%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62evenly matched on net striking+1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1596 vs 1551Strikes69.5 vs 58.7Takedowns1.4 vs 5.3Sub Atts1.10 vs 0.33Form0.9 vs 1.0
TJ DillashawDominick Cruz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Dominick Cruz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -301.0|Blue +301.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetDominick Cruz

By target zone

64
19% acc · 59%
Head
97
34% acc · 87%
22
56% acc · 20%
Body
9
64% acc · 8%
23
88% acc · 21%
Leg
6
100% acc · 5%

By position

102
26% acc · 94%
Distance
107
36% acc · 96%
6
46% acc · 6%
Clinch
5
83% acc · 4%
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
TJ Dillashaw rounds
1
even
3
Dominick Cruz rounds
Round 1Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:12
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 2Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 3Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:03
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:13Control
Round 4Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control0:56
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 5TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
109 / 408
Sig Strikes
112 / 302
26%
Sig Str %
36.4%
130 / 430
Total Strikes
122 / 312
1 / 8
TDs
4 / 11
20%
TD %
44%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:11
Ctrl Time
0:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dominick Cruz21 / 6221 / 621 / 50
1TJ Dillashaw19 / 8726 / 940 / 20
2TJ Dillashaw16 / 7917 / 800 / 20
2Dominick Cruz17 / 5218 / 532 / 20
3Dominick Cruz19 / 5419 / 541 / 10
3TJ Dillashaw19 / 7719 / 770 / 20
4Dominick Cruz25 / 5834 / 670 / 20
4TJ Dillashaw22 / 7035 / 841 / 10
5TJ Dillashaw33 / 9533 / 950 / 10
5Dominick Cruz30 / 7630 / 760 / 10

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Dominick Cruz

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10