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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
TJ Dillashaw won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1496
Elo1487

TJ DillashawvsCody GarbrandtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Saturday, August 4, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:10

Style matchupTJ Dillashaw: Well-roundedvsCody Garbrandt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: TJ Dillashaw wins(70.8%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Dillashaw at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • TJ Dillashaw is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Cody Garbrandt has lost 63% of fights by KO.
  • Cody Garbrandt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). TJ Dillashaw has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw
Red Corner
VS
Cody Garbrandt
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1496
Elo
1487
40
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw
oldest →
W
vs John Lineker · Dec 16
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22
latest
Cody Garbrandt
oldest →
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23
L
SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24
L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25
W
vs Xiao Long · Mar 26
L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricCody Garbrandt
5.09
Strikes / min
2.79
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.66
62%
Strike defense
58%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
0.85
77%
Takedown defense
81%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 2.49 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1627 vs 1581Strikes68.5 vs 34.7Takedowns1.5 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.86 vs 0.00Form0.9 vs 0.1
TJ DillashawCody Garbrandt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +8.3|Blue -8.3
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetCody Garbrandt

By target zone

37
62% acc · 82%
Head
14
38% acc · 82%
5
83% acc · 11%
Body
2
40% acc · 12%
3
50% acc · 7%
Leg
1
100% acc · 6%

By position

16
42% acc · 36%
Distance
14
36% acc · 82%
15
94% acc · 33%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 18%
14
78% acc · 31%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
TJ Dillashaw rounds
0
even
0
Cody Garbrandt rounds
Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes45
Takedowns0
Control0:30
Knockdowns2
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
45 / 72
Sig Strikes
17 / 43
62%
Sig Str %
39%
51 / 78
Total Strikes
17 / 43
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:30
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cody Garbrandt17 / 4317 / 430 / 20
1TJ Dillashaw45 / 7251 / 780 / 00

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights18