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Featherweight

3 Rounds

TJ Brown won · SUB R3

Elo1480

Elo1463

TJ BrownvsErik SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, December 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

TJ Brown won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:41

Style matchupTJ Brown: WrestlervsErik Silva: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: TJ Brown wins(61.3%)

Actual result: TJ Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Brown at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

TJ Brown enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Erik Silva has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors TJ Brown (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

TJ Brown

Red Corner

Erik Silva

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1480

Elo

1463

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ BrownL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kai Kamaka · May 21

vs Charles Rosa · Jan 22

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 22

SUBvs Bill Algeo · Apr 23

SUBvs Darren Elkins · Oct 23

latest

Erik SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Feb 24

SUBvs Francis Marshall · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ BrownMetricErik Silva

3.37

Strikes / min

2.06

2.89

Strikes absorbed / min

1.52

49%

Strike defense

40%

3.41

TDs / 15 min

3.26

36%

Takedown defense

60%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ BrownErik Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Brown(8 fights)Erik Silva(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.0|Blue -17.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ BrownTargetErik Silva

By target zone

61% acc · 83%

Head

63% acc · 57%

80% acc · 17%

Body

86% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

52% acc · 54%

Distance

65% acc · 62%

86% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

83% acc · 21%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Brown rounds

even

Erik Silva rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:01

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control3:14

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3TJ Brown edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:28

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 38

Sig Strikes

21 / 29

63.7%

Sig Str %

71%

82 / 109

Total Strikes

32 / 42

2 / 7

TDs

3 / 4

58%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

9:43

Ctrl Time

2:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Erik Silva	9 / 11	14 / 17	2 / 2	0
1	TJ Brown	10 / 14	21 / 29	1 / 6	0
2	Erik Silva	10 / 15	14 / 20	1 / 1	0
2	TJ Brown	7 / 14	36 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Erik Silva	2 / 3	4 / 5	0 / 1	0
3	TJ Brown	7 / 10	25 / 31	1 / 1	1

TJ Brown

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Erik Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3