← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Danny Chavez won · U-DEC

Elo1480

Elo1428

TJ BrownvsDanny ChavezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Saturday, August 15, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Danny Chavez won

U-DEC

Style matchupTJ Brown: WrestlervsDanny Chavez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: TJ Brown wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Danny Chavez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Brown at -167 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Chavez has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors TJ Brown (52.9%).
TJ Brown has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Brown

Red Corner

Danny Chavez

Blue Corner

-167

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1480

Elo

1428

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Charles Rosa · Jan 22

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 22

SUBvs Erik Silva · Dec 22

SUBvs Bill Algeo · Apr 23

SUBvs Darren Elkins · Oct 23

latest

Danny ChavezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Gordon · Feb 21

KOvs Ricardo Ramos · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ BrownMetricDanny Chavez

3.37

Strikes / min

2.86

2.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

49%

Strike defense

50%

3.41

TDs / 15 min

1.95

36%

Takedown defense

87%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.48Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ BrownDanny Chavez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Brown(8 fights)Danny Chavez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.9|Blue -52.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ BrownTargetDanny Chavez

By target zone

24% acc · 58%

Head

28% acc · 47%

50% acc · 28%

Body

89% acc · 16%

50% acc · 14%

Leg

90% acc · 37%

By position

29% acc · 88%

Distance

41% acc · 82%

71% acc · 12%

Clinch

Ground

69% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Brown rounds

even

Danny Chavez rounds

Round 1Danny Chavez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:02

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Danny Chavez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:10

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 3Danny Chavez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:51

12Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

1:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 139

Sig Strikes

49 / 110

30%

Sig Str %

43.7%

59 / 156

Total Strikes

52 / 113

0 / 6

TDs

4 / 4

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

2:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Danny Chavez	17 / 36	17 / 36	0 / 0
1	TJ Brown	12 / 42	12 / 42	0 / 1
2	Danny Chavez	20 / 43	23 / 46	0 / 0
2	TJ Brown	12 / 45	18 / 52	0 / 1
3	Danny Chavez	12 / 31	12 / 31	4 / 4
3	TJ Brown	19 / 52	29 / 62	0 / 4

TJ Brown

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Danny Chavez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3