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Lightweight

3 Rounds

TJ Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1430

TJ BrownvsCharles RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Saturday, January 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

TJ Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTJ Brown: WrestlervsCharles Rosa: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: TJ Brown wins(56.9%)

Actual result: TJ Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Brown at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa threatens submissions; TJ Brown has lost 60% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Brown

Red Corner

Charles Rosa

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1480

Elo

1430

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kai Kamaka · May 21

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 22

SUBvs Erik Silva · Dec 22

SUBvs Bill Algeo · Apr 23

SUBvs Darren Elkins · Oct 23

latest

Charles RosaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Aguilar · Jun 20

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ BrownMetricCharles Rosa

3.37

Strikes / min

3.08

2.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

49%

Strike defense

47%

3.41

TDs / 15 min

1.67

36%

Takedown defense

38%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.48Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

TJ BrownCharles Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

TJ Brown(8 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +50.1|Blue -50.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ BrownTargetCharles Rosa

By target zone

54% acc · 79%

Head

28% acc · 46%

83% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 11%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

95% acc · 43%

By position

56% acc · 84%

Distance

42% acc · 91%

40% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

100% acc · 12%

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

TJ Brown rounds

even

Charles Rosa rounds

Round 1TJ Brown edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns3

Control1:36

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2TJ Brown edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:34

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3TJ Brown edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:29

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 99

Sig Strikes

46 / 107

66%

Sig Str %

37.7%

88 / 141

Total Strikes

71 / 132

6 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

80.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:39

Ctrl Time

2:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Rosa	34 / 73	39 / 78	0 / 0	0
1	TJ Brown	35 / 67	38 / 70	3 / 4	1
2	Charles Rosa	9 / 24	24 / 39	0 / 0	1
2	TJ Brown	16 / 23	29 / 43	1 / 1	2
3	Charles Rosa	3 / 10	8 / 15	0 / 0	0
3	TJ Brown	7 / 9	21 / 28	2 / 3	0

TJ Brown

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13