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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tito Ortiz won · SUB R1

Elo1352

Elo1491

Tito OrtizvsRyan BaderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · Saturday, July 2, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tito Ortiz won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:56

Style matchupTito Ortiz: WrestlervsRyan Bader: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Tito Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Bader at -600 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tito Ortiz enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tito Ortiz threatens submissions; Ryan Bader has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Ryan Bader has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ryan Bader has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tito Ortiz

Red Corner

Ryan Bader

Blue Corner

+500

(17%)

Vegas Odds

-600

(86%)

1352

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tito OrtizL4 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Hamill · Oct 10

KOvs Rashad Evans · Aug 11

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Dec 11

vs Forrest Griffin · Jul 12

latest

Ryan BaderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Phil Davis · Jan 15

vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15

KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tito OrtizMetricRyan Bader

2.59

Strikes / min

2.82

2.88

Strikes absorbed / min

1.39

60%

Strike defense

71%

2.47

TDs / 15 min

3.37

54%

Takedown defense

80%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tito OrtizRyan Bader

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tito Ortiz(5 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.1|Blue +139.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tito OrtizTargetRyan Bader

By target zone

33% acc · 67%

Head

8% acc · 25%

100% acc · 17%

Body

33% acc · 17%

Leg

38% acc · 75%

By position

36% acc · 83%

Distance

19% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tito Ortiz rounds

even

Ryan Bader rounds

Round 1Tito Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 16

Sig Strikes

4 / 21

37%

Sig Str %

19%

7 / 17

Total Strikes

4 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Bader	4 / 21	4 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Tito Ortiz	6 / 16	7 / 17	0 / 0	1

Tito Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16