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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rogerio Nogueira won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1352
Tito Ortiz
Elo1387

Tito OrtizvsRogerio NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · Saturday, December 10, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Rogerio Nogueira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:15

Model Prediction: Tito Ortiz wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tito Ortiz at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Tito Ortiz has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tito Ortiz
Red Corner
VS
Rogerio Nogueira
Blue Corner
+245
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-265
(73%)
1352
Elo
1387
51
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tito OrtizL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Matt Hamill · Oct 10
W
SUBvs Ryan Bader · Jul 11
L
KOvs Rashad Evans · Aug 11
L
vs Forrest Griffin · Jul 12
latest
Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16
L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16
W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18
L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tito OrtizMetricRogerio Nogueira
2.59
Strikes / min
2.43
2.88
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
60%
Strike defense
59%
2.47
TDs / 15 min
0.64
54%
Takedown defense
62%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1486Strikes26.0 vs 18.3Takedowns2.2 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.32 vs 0.25Form-0.2 vs -0.6
Tito OrtizRogerio Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Tito Ortiz(5 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -35.2|Blue +35.2
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -133.0|Blue +133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tito OrtizTargetRogerio Nogueira

By target zone

7
50% acc · 78%
Head
26
44% acc · 48%
2
67% acc · 22%
Body
28
90% acc · 52%
0
Leg
0

By position

4
40% acc · 44%
Distance
2
13% acc · 4%
5
71% acc · 56%
Clinch
15
71% acc · 28%
0
Ground
37
69% acc · 69%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tito Ortiz rounds
0
even
1
Rogerio Nogueira rounds
Round 1Rogerio Nogueira edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:56
Knockdowns0
54Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:37Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
9 / 17
Sig Strikes
54 / 90
52%
Sig Str %
60%
13 / 21
Total Strikes
80 / 119
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:56
Ctrl Time
1:37

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rogerio Nogueira54 / 9080 / 1190 / 00
1Tito Ortiz9 / 1713 / 210 / 10

Tito Ortiz

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12