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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Hamill won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1490

Tito OrtizvsMatt HamillUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Matt Hamill won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTito Ortiz: WrestlervsMatt Hamill: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Matt Hamill wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Matt Hamill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Hamill at -173 American odds

+$58 profit

$158 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tito Ortiz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Hamill has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tito Ortiz

Red Corner

Matt Hamill

Blue Corner

+163

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-173

(63%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tito OrtizL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Bader · Jul 11

KOvs Rashad Evans · Aug 11

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Dec 11

vs Forrest Griffin · Jul 12

latest

Matt Hamill

oldest →

vs Keith Jardine · Jun 10

DECvs Rampage Jackson · May 11

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Aug 11

vs Roger Hollett · Sep 12

vs Thiago Silva · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tito OrtizMetricMatt Hamill

2.59

Strikes / min

3.69

2.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

60%

Strike defense

61%

2.47

TDs / 15 min

3.00

54%

Takedown defense

91%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tito OrtizMatt Hamill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tito Ortiz(5 fights)Matt Hamill(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.7|Blue +138.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +48.2|Blue -48.2

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tito OrtizTargetMatt Hamill

By target zone

18% acc · 51%

Head

28% acc · 80%

75% acc · 24%

Body

40% acc · 5%

82% acc · 24%

Leg

60% acc · 15%

By position

28% acc · 95%

Distance

31% acc · 85%

25% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 3%

Ground

29% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tito Ortiz rounds

even

Matt Hamill rounds

Round 1Tito Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Matt Hamill edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:17Control

Round 3Matt Hamill edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 131

Sig Strikes

41 / 134

27.7%

Sig Str %

30.3%

59 / 157

Total Strikes

58 / 154

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 3

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Hamill	11 / 45	11 / 45	1 / 1
1	Tito Ortiz	17 / 63	18 / 64	0 / 0
2	Matt Hamill	13 / 38	22 / 48	1 / 1
2	Tito Ortiz	12 / 39	23 / 52	0 / 1
3	Matt Hamill	17 / 51	25 / 61	1 / 1
3	Tito Ortiz	8 / 29	18 / 41	0 / 1

Tito Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Matt Hamill

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6