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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Trevin Jones won · KO/TKO

Elo1494

Elo1450

Timur ValievvsTrevin JonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Saturday, August 22, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Trevin Jones won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Trevin Jones wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Trevin Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevin Jones at +387 American odds

+$387 profit

$487 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevin Jones enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Trevin Jones is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Timur Valiev has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Trevin Jones (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Timur Valiev

Red Corner

Trevin Jones

Blue Corner

-560

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+387

(21%)

1494

Elo

1450

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Timur Valiev

oldest →

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 21

vs Jack Shore · Mar 22

latest

Trevin JonesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mario Bautista · Mar 21

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Aug 21

vs Javid Basharat · Mar 22

vs Raoni Barcelos · Oct 22

vs Cody Garbrandt · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Timur ValievMetricTrevin Jones

5.19

Strikes / min

2.13

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

4.29

45%

Strike defense

39%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

0.62

55%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.86Δ 4.02 — meaningful gap-2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Timur ValievTrevin Jones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Timur Valiev(3 fights)Trevin Jones(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.9|Blue -43.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Timur ValievTargetTrevin Jones

By target zone

56% acc · 42%

Head

48% acc · 81%

86% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 12%

93% acc · 20%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

70% acc · 91%

Distance

34% acc · 42%

86% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

82% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Timur Valiev rounds

even

Trevin Jones rounds

Round 1Timur Valiev edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Trevin Jones edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 93

Sig Strikes

26 / 50

69.5%

Sig Str %

51%

66 / 93

Total Strikes

31 / 55

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Trevin Jones	8 / 24	12 / 28	1 / 1
1	Timur Valiev	53 / 74	53 / 74	0 / 0
2	Trevin Jones	18 / 26	19 / 27	0 / 1
2	Timur Valiev	13 / 19	13 / 19	0 / 0

Timur Valiev

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Trevin Jones

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6