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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lucas Almeida won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1479

Timmy CuambavsLucas AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · Saturday, June 15, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Lucas Almeida won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTimmy Cuamba: Well-roundedvsLucas Almeida: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Lucas Almeida wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Lucas Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lucas Almeida at +164 American odds

+$164 profit

$264 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lucas Almeida enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Timmy Cuamba is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Lucas Almeida has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Timmy Cuamba has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Timmy Cuamba has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Timmy Cuamba

Red Corner

Lucas Almeida

Blue Corner

-198

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1497

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Timmy Cuamba

oldest →

vs Bolaji Oki · Feb 24

KOvs Roberto Romero · Apr 25

vs ChangHo Lee · Nov 25

SUBvs Benardo Sopaj · May 26

latest

Lucas AlmeidaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Trizano · Jun 22

SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Jun 23

KOvs Andre Fili · Dec 23

vs Danny Silva · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Aswell Jr. · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Timmy CuambaMetricLucas Almeida

2.77

Strikes / min

4.94

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

5.36

57%

Strike defense

44%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Timmy CuambaLucas Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Timmy Cuamba(5 fights)Lucas Almeida(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.2|Blue -17.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Timmy CuambaTargetLucas Almeida

By target zone

40% acc · 59%

Head

28% acc · 61%

82% acc · 24%

Body

46% acc · 19%

83% acc · 17%

Leg

93% acc · 20%

By position

48% acc · 81%

Distance

34% acc · 93%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

69% acc · 19%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Timmy Cuamba rounds

even

Lucas Almeida rounds

Round 1Lucas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:44

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Lucas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:16

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Timmy Cuamba edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control1:18

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 116

Sig Strikes

70 / 196

50.7%

Sig Str %

35%

73 / 136

Total Strikes

91 / 220

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:18

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lucas Almeida	22 / 59	30 / 70	0 / 0
1	Timmy Cuamba	13 / 26	13 / 26	0 / 2
2	Lucas Almeida	32 / 84	36 / 88	0 / 0
2	Timmy Cuamba	22 / 44	22 / 44	0 / 1
3	Lucas Almeida	16 / 53	25 / 62	0 / 0
3	Timmy Cuamba	24 / 46	38 / 66	2 / 2

Timmy Cuamba

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Lucas Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6