Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Timmy Cuamba won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1504

Timmy CuambavsChangHo LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Timmy Cuamba won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTimmy Cuamba: Well-roundedvsChangHo Lee: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: ChangHo Lee wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Timmy Cuamba wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

ChangHo Lee at -108 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Timmy Cuamba has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Timmy Cuamba has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Timmy Cuamba

Red Corner

ChangHo Lee

Blue Corner

-108

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-108

(52%)

1497

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Timmy Cuamba

oldest →

vs Bolaji Oki · Feb 24

vs Lucas Almeida · Jun 24

KOvs Roberto Romero · Apr 25

SUBvs Benardo Sopaj · May 26

latest

ChangHo LeeW2 streak

oldest →

vs Xiao Long · Jun 24

KOvs Cortavious Romious · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Timmy CuambaMetricChangHo Lee

2.77

Strikes / min

3.88

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

57%

Strike defense

37%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

3.20

72%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81Δ 2.56 — meaningful gap+1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Timmy CuambaChangHo Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Timmy Cuamba(5 fights)ChangHo Lee(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.7|Blue +7.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Timmy CuambaTargetChangHo Lee

By target zone

65% acc · 74%

Head

56% acc · 67%

100% acc · 26%

Body

50% acc · 13%

Leg

75% acc · 20%

By position

68% acc · 65%

Distance

54% acc · 87%

80% acc · 35%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Timmy Cuamba rounds

even

ChangHo Lee rounds

Round 1ChangHo Lee edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:52Control

Round 2Timmy Cuamba edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:35

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 3Timmy Cuamba edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control4:20

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 32

Sig Strikes

15 / 26

47%

Sig Str %

83.3%

39 / 48

Total Strikes

88 / 141

2 / 4

TDs

3 / 8

50%

TD %

43%

Sub Att

Rev

5:55

Ctrl Time

6:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	ChangHo Lee	1 / 1	49 / 90	2 / 3
1	Timmy Cuamba	0 / 1	2 / 3	0 / 0
2	ChangHo Lee	11 / 22	13 / 25	1 / 5
2	Timmy Cuamba	21 / 28	23 / 30	1 / 2
3	ChangHo Lee	3 / 3	26 / 26	0 / 0
3	Timmy Cuamba	2 / 3	14 / 15	1 / 2

Timmy Cuamba

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

ChangHo Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3