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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Tim Means won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1492
Tim Means
Elo1369

Tim MeansvsRicky RaineyUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Friday, November 30, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:18

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsRicky Rainey: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tim Means has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ricky Rainey (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means
Red Corner
VS
Ricky Rainey
Blue Corner
-340
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
1492
Elo
1369
42
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'2"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Max Griffin · Oct 22
L
SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23
W
KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23
L
KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24
L
SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24
latest
Ricky Rainey
oldest →
L
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Apr 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricRicky Rainey
5.04
Strikes / min
2.55
3.65
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
60%
Strike defense
46%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
0.95
64%
Takedown defense
55%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.39Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1528 vs 1481Strikes50.2 vs 19.0Takedowns0.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.12 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs -1.0
Tim MeansRicky Rainey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Tim Means(10 fights)Ricky Rainey(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +122.6|Blue -122.6
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetRicky Rainey

By target zone

17
57% acc · 89%
Head
6
55% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 5%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 5%
Leg
0

By position

5
36% acc · 26%
Distance
6
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
14
78% acc · 74%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tim Means rounds
0
even
0
Ricky Rainey rounds
Round 1Tim Means edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns2
Control0:33
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
19 / 32
Sig Strikes
6 / 12
59%
Sig Str %
50%
26 / 39
Total Strikes
6 / 12
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:33
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ricky Rainey6 / 126 / 120 / 00
1Tim Means19 / 3226 / 392 / 20

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights29

Ricky Rainey

StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights2