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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Niko Price won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1492

Elo1445

Tim MeansvsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Niko Price won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:50

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsNiko Price: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Niko Price wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tim Means has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Niko Price

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1492

Elo

1445

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricNiko Price

5.04

Strikes / min

5.11

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

60%

Strike defense

48%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

1.06

64%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.7|Blue -46.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -83.0|Blue +83.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetNiko Price

By target zone

61% acc · 87%

Head

44% acc · 66%

100% acc · 10%

Body

33% acc · 9%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

80% acc · 25%

By position

62% acc · 77%

Distance

44% acc · 72%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

44% acc · 13%

86% acc · 19%

Ground

83% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Niko Price rounds

Round 1Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control1:50

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 48

Sig Strikes

32 / 67

64%

Sig Str %

47%

35 / 54

Total Strikes

36 / 73

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Niko Price	32 / 67	36 / 73	0 / 0	0
1	Tim Means	31 / 48	35 / 54	1 / 1	0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19