← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1508

Tim MeansvsNicolas DalbyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 26, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsNicolas Dalby: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at -143 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Nicolas Dalby

Blue Corner

-143

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+113

(47%)

1492

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricNicolas Dalby

5.04

Strikes / min

3.88

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

60%

Strike defense

52%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.90

64%

Takedown defense

59%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansNicolas Dalby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.5|Blue +16.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetNicolas Dalby

By target zone

36% acc · 38%

Head

40% acc · 69%

88% acc · 55%

Body

68% acc · 24%

80% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

46% acc · 60%

Distance

40% acc · 65%

89% acc · 32%

Clinch

68% acc · 35%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Nicolas Dalby rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:07

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control1:45

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control3:11

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 93

Sig Strikes

54 / 116

55.3%

Sig Str %

49%

94 / 134

Total Strikes

84 / 146

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 4

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:03

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nicolas Dalby	11 / 20	21 / 30	0 / 1
1	Tim Means	15 / 26	38 / 49	1 / 1
2	Nicolas Dalby	24 / 60	28 / 64	0 / 2
2	Tim Means	29 / 49	35 / 55	0 / 0
3	Nicolas Dalby	19 / 36	35 / 52	0 / 1
3	Tim Means	9 / 18	21 / 30	0 / 3

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14