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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · Decision R3

Elo1492

Elo1410

Tim MeansvsLaureano StaropoliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Saturday, August 8, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Laureano Staropoli wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Laureano Staropoli at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Laureano Staropoli enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tim Means has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tim Means has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Laureano Staropoli

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1492

Elo

1410

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Laureano StaropoliL3 streak

oldest →

vs Hector Aldana · Nov 18

vs Thiago Alves · May 19

vs Muslim Salikhov · Oct 19

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 21

vs Jamie Pickett · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricLaureano Staropoli

5.04

Strikes / min

3.31

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

60%

Strike defense

54%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.83

64%

Takedown defense

48%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansLaureano Staropoli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Laureano Staropoli(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +82.0|Blue -82.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetLaureano Staropoli

By target zone

48% acc · 65%

Head

39% acc · 66%

92% acc · 27%

Body

54% acc · 27%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

53% acc · 72%

Distance

44% acc · 99%

76% acc · 26%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

67% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Laureano Staropoli rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control1:35

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control0:50

Knockdowns1

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control3:42

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 147

Sig Strikes

71 / 161

58%

Sig Str %

43%

126 / 189

Total Strikes

81 / 172

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:07

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Laureano Staropoli	33 / 70	34 / 71	0 / 0
1	Tim Means	26 / 52	31 / 57	1 / 2
2	Laureano Staropoli	28 / 67	28 / 67	0 / 0
2	Tim Means	41 / 66	44 / 70	1 / 1
3	Laureano Staropoli	10 / 24	19 / 34	0 / 1
3	Tim Means	18 / 29	51 / 62	0 / 3

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Laureano Staropoli

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6