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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1510

Tim MeansvsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:28

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Means has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Holland has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Kevin Holland

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1492

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricKevin Holland

5.04

Strikes / min

4.24

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

60%

Strike defense

50%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.79

64%

Takedown defense

57%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.2|Blue +18.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

32% acc · 38%

Head

37% acc · 72%

65% acc · 52%

Body

33% acc · 8%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

70% acc · 19%

By position

44% acc · 95%

Distance

39% acc · 92%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

60% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Kevin Holland rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:30

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 46

Sig Strikes

36 / 90

49.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

25 / 52

Total Strikes

53 / 109

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Holland	27 / 70	44 / 89	0 / 0	0
1	Tim Means	14 / 34	18 / 40	2 / 4	0
2	Kevin Holland	9 / 20	9 / 20	0 / 1	1
2	Tim Means	7 / 12	7 / 12	0 / 1	0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27