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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1492

Elo1356

Tim MeansvsJustin SalasUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · Friday, June 8, 2012Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:06

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsJustin Salas: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Means has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Salas (53.5%).
Tim Means has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Justin Salas

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1492

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Justin SalasL2 streak

oldest →

vs Aaron Riley · Jul 13

SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Nov 13

KOvs Ben Wall · May 14

KOvs Joe Proctor · Jul 14

KOvs Jason Saggo · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricJustin Salas

5.04

Strikes / min

3.42

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

60%

Strike defense

68%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

2.43

64%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansJustin Salas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Justin Salas(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.2|Blue -135.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetJustin Salas

By target zone

61% acc · 96%

Head

50% acc · 60%

100% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

64% acc · 35%

Distance

50% acc · 60%

62% acc · 31%

Clinch

100% acc · 40%

60% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Justin Salas rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:20

Knockdowns2

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 42

Sig Strikes

5 / 8

61%

Sig Str %

62%

30 / 46

Total Strikes

5 / 8

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Salas	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 4	0
1	Tim Means	26 / 42	30 / 46	0 / 0	0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Justin Salas

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7