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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1456

Tim MeansvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · Saturday, April 20, 2013San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1492

Elo

1456

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricJorge Masvidal

5.04

Strikes / min

4.05

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

60%

Strike defense

64%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

1.38

64%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.4|Blue -35.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.3|Blue +47.3

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

29% acc · 77%

Head

33% acc · 76%

47% acc · 16%

Body

71% acc · 20%

75% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

28% acc · 56%

Distance

33% acc · 42%

40% acc · 5%

Clinch

40% acc · 4%

40% acc · 40%

Ground

42% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:43Control

Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:18

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 133

Sig Strikes

50 / 132

32%

Sig Str %

36.7%

68 / 161

Total Strikes

71 / 157

0 / 1

TDs

6 / 8

TD %

80.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

7:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Masvidal	15 / 45	15 / 45	1 / 1
1	Tim Means	16 / 55	17 / 56	0 / 1
2	Jorge Masvidal	24 / 53	32 / 64	3 / 4
2	Tim Means	10 / 34	22 / 49	0 / 0
3	Jorge Masvidal	11 / 34	24 / 48	2 / 3
3	Tim Means	17 / 44	29 / 56	0 / 0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22