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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1490

Tim MeansvsJohn HowardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Thursday, December 10, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:21

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsJohn Howard: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

John Howard

Blue Corner

-410

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1492

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'7"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

John Howard

oldest →

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14

vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14

KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15

vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricJohn Howard

5.04

Strikes / min

2.15

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.08

60%

Strike defense

51%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

2.70

64%

Takedown defense

53%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 2.32 — meaningful gap-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansJohn Howard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)John Howard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetJohn Howard

By target zone

45% acc · 59%

Head

26% acc · 50%

65% acc · 30%

Body

50% acc · 15%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

78% acc · 35%

By position

52% acc · 95%

Distance

34% acc · 80%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

57% acc · 20%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

John Howard rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:03

20Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 70

Sig Strikes

20 / 54

75%

Sig Str %

19%

43 / 76

Total Strikes

22 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Howard	20 / 52	22 / 54	3 / 3
1	Tim Means	34 / 67	40 / 73	0 / 0
2	John Howard	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0
2	Tim Means	3 / 3	3 / 3	0 / 0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

John Howard

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11