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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Rodriguez won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1520

Tim MeansvsDaniel RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · Saturday, February 15, 2020Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Rodriguez won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:37

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at +285 American odds

+$285 profit

$385 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Daniel Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1492

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Daniel RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricDaniel Rodriguez

5.04

Strikes / min

7.20

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

60%

Strike defense

57%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.51

64%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39evenly matched on net striking+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansDaniel Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.7|Blue +28.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -47.2|Blue +47.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetDaniel Rodriguez

By target zone

31% acc · 46%

Head

35% acc · 76%

50% acc · 29%

Body

71% acc · 10%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:08

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:03

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 95

Sig Strikes

49 / 121

42.5%

Sig Str %

40%

41 / 95

Total Strikes

49 / 121

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Rodriguez	24 / 60	24 / 60	0 / 0	0
1	Tim Means	24 / 54	24 / 54	1 / 1	0
2	Daniel Rodriguez	25 / 61	25 / 61	0 / 0	1
2	Tim Means	17 / 41	17 / 41	0 / 2	0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14