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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1351

Tim MeansvsBernardo MagalhaesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · Wednesday, February 15, 2012Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Means has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tim Means has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Bernardo Magalhaes

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1492

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Bernardo Magalhaes

oldest →

vs Henry Martinez · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricBernardo Magalhaes

5.04

Strikes / min

1.80

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.37

60%

Strike defense

68%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.00

64%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 2.96 — meaningful gap-1.57

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Bernardo Magalhaes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +140.2|Blue -140.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetBernardo Magalhaes

By target zone

37% acc · 59%

Head

28% acc · 54%

89% acc · 37%

Body

83% acc · 18%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

89% acc · 29%

By position

37% acc · 55%

Distance

41% acc · 100%

84% acc · 25%

Clinch

80% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Bernardo Magalhaes rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:15

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:13

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:32

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 170

Sig Strikes

28 / 68

49%

Sig Str %

41.7%

98 / 186

Total Strikes

30 / 70

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 11

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bernardo Magalhaes	11 / 20	13 / 22	0 / 2
1	Tim Means	26 / 46	30 / 50	0 / 0
2	Bernardo Magalhaes	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 3
2	Tim Means	25 / 56	26 / 58	0 / 0
3	Bernardo Magalhaes	7 / 24	7 / 24	0 / 6
3	Tim Means	32 / 68	42 / 78	0 / 0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Bernardo Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2