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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1479

Tim MeansvsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1492

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricBelal Muhammad

5.04

Strikes / min

4.43

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

60%

Strike defense

55%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

2.14

64%

Takedown defense

90%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.5|Blue -12.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

28% acc · 54%

Head

36% acc · 82%

69% acc · 32%

Body

63% acc · 11%

93% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

39% acc · 99%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

91 / 234

Sig Strikes

88 / 221

38.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

93 / 236

Total Strikes

90 / 224

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Belal Muhammad	31 / 78	31 / 78	0 / 1
1	Tim Means	20 / 70	21 / 71	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	22 / 55	24 / 58	1 / 2
2	Tim Means	34 / 70	35 / 71	0 / 0
3	Belal Muhammad	35 / 88	35 / 88	0 / 2
3	Tim Means	37 / 94	37 / 94	0 / 1

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21